I thought I would start 2012 by taking a look at the main factors likely to affect subordinated bonds and preference shares during the year. With the combination of the Eurozone crisis, the advent of Basel 3, the recent raft of tender and exchange offers by issuers, the changing landscape with respect to calls and the prospect of discretionary coupon resumption by large issuers such as Lloyds and RBS there are plenty of dynamics to consider when looking for investing opportunities !
Tender and Exchange Offers
There was a flurry of tender and exchange offers for subordinated securities by UK and Eurozone banks towards the end of 2011. Market reaction was mixed with the exchange offers, into lower coupon senior notes, by Santander and BNP attracted particular criticism from institutional investors. The main offers are summarised below.
15 Nov 2011: Santander announced a controversial exchange offer in relation to €6.8 billion of LT2 securities. Offer was to exchange, with exchange ratios ranging from 87% to 99.5%, into new senior securities with substantially lower coupons. The offer was criticised by institutional holders and the ABI bondholders committee. The acceptance rate was low at about 24%.
17 Nov 2011: BNP announced an exchange offer in relation to $4 billion of Tier 1 and Tier 2 securities. The offer was to exchange into new senior floating rate securities. The acceptance level was about 38%.
18 Nov 2011: Societe Generale announced a cash tender offer for up to €1.4 billion of its Tier 1 securities.
1 Dec 2011: Lloyds Banking Group announced an offer to exchange £4.9 billion of LT2 securities into new LT2 securities with longer maturity at exchange ratios of between 70% and 80.75%. The acceptance rate was about 61%.
5 Dec 2011: Commerzbank announced a cash tender offer for €2.23 billion of its Tier 1 securities at between 40% and 52.5% of nominal.
5 Dec 2011: Barclays announced a cash tender offer for £2.5 billion of its Tier 1 securities at between 70% and 94.5% of nominal.
12 Dec 2011: ING announced a cash tender offer for €5.8 billion of its subordinated bonds at between 58% and 87% of nominal. The acceptance rate was about 60%.
The focus has been been to take advantage of depressed market conditions to generate Core Tier 1 capital through repurchase or exchange of Tier 1 and Tier 2 securities at a discount to nominal. Offers have been targeted at institutional issues. Issuers have not tended to include higher coupon Tier 1 issues in these offers. Barclays, for example, did not include its 14% perpetual tier 1 notes in its tender offer. This would not have generated capital in the same way but would have reduced the level of expensive subordinated debt.
It will be interesting to see the approach issuers take moving forward and, in particular, whether Lloyds and RBS tender for their Tier 1 and UT2 bonds and preference shares. It appears that Lloyds is currently prevented from taking this approach due to the repurchase restriction on the terms of many of its securities currently affected by the EC coupon suspension commitment. This will be a frustration for them especially as the restrictions could limit their ability to tender well beyond the 31 January 2012 date at which the suspension commitment expires. For example the three high coupon Lloyds 13% perpetual tier 1 securities impose a repurchase restriction across all parity securities for a period of 1 year from the last coupon deferral. With the interest date of 21 January 2012 caught in the suspension period this would imply an earliest date of 21 January 2013 for any repurchase unless Lloyds and their legal advisers can find a way round the problem.
Basel 3
Basel 3 will take effect from 1 January 2013. It seems that virtually all existing Tier 1 securities and preference shares will not count as Tier 1 under Basel 3. For those who like the detail below is a list of the 14 criteria laid down for inclusion in Additional Tier 1 Capital Under Basel 3:
1. Issued and paid-in.
2. Subordinated to depositors, general creditors and subordinated debt of the bank.
3. Is neither secured nor covered by a guarantee of the issuer or related entity or other arrangement that legally or economically enhances the seniority of the claim vis-à-vis bank creditors.
4. Is perpetual with no maturity date and no step-ups or other incentives to redeem.
5. May be callable at the initiative of the issuer only after a minimum of five years providing:
a. To exercise a call option a bank must receive prior supervisory approval; and
b. A bank must not do anything which creates an expectation that the call will be exercised; and
c. Banks must not exercise a call unless:
i. They replace the called instrument with capital of the same or better quality and the replacement of this capital is done at conditions which are sustainable for the income capacity of the bank; or
ii. The bank demonstrates that its capital position is well above the minimum capital requirements after the call option is exercised.
6. Any repayment of principal (eg through repurchase or redemption) must be with prior supervisory approval and banks should not assume or create market expectations that supervisory approval will be given.
7. Dividend/coupon discretion:
a. the bank must have full discretion at all times to cancel distributions/payments
b. cancellation of discretionary payments must not be an event of default
c. banks must have full access to cancelled payments to meet obligations as they fall due
d. cancellation of distributions/payments must not impose restrictions on the bank except in relation to distributions to common stockholders.
8. Dividends/coupons must be paid out of distributable items.
9. The instrument cannot have a credit sensitive dividend feature, that is a dividend/coupon that is reset periodically based in whole or in part on the banking organisation’s credit standing.
10. The instrument cannot contribute to liabilities exceeding assets if such a balance sheet test forms part of national insolvency law.
11. Instruments classified as liabilities for accounting purposes must have principal loss absorption through either (i) conversion to common shares at an objective pre-specified trigger point or (ii) a write-down mechanism which allocates losses to the instrument at a pre-specified trigger point. The write-down will have the following effects:
a. Reduce the claim of the instrument in liquidation;
b. Reduce the amount re-paid when a call is exercised;
c. and Partially or fully reduce coupon/dividend payments on the instrument.
12. Neither the bank nor a related party over which the bank exercises control or significant influence can have purchased the instrument, nor can the bank directly or indirectly have funded the purchase of the instrument.
13. The instrument cannot have any features that hinder recapitalisation, such as provisions that require the issuer to compensate investors if a new instrument is issued at a lower price during a specified time frame.
14. If the instrument is not issued out of an operating entity or the holding company in the consolidated group (eg a special purpose vehicle – “SPV”), proceeds must be immediately available without limitation to an operating entity or the holding company in the consolidated group in a form which meets or exceeds all of the other criteria for inclusion in Additional Tier 1 capital.
These criteria, and particularly item 11 which introduces a requirement for principal loss absorption prior to insolvency, will mean that old Tier 1 securities will no longer qualify under Basel 3. In respect of such securities Basel 3 makes the following statement:
Capital Instruments that no longer qualify as non-common equity Tier 1 capital or Tier 2 capital will be phased out over a 10 year horizon beginning 1 January 2013. Fixing the base at the nominal amount of such instruments outstanding on 1 January 2013, their recognition will be capped at 90% from 1 January 2013, with the cap reducing 10 percentage points in each subsequent year. In addition instruments with an incentive to be redeemed will be phased out at their effective maturity date.
The last sentence above tells us that those issues with an incentive to redeem will stop qualifying as Tier 1 or Tier 2 capital, respectively, at the first call date, and, as a consequence, there is a strong incentive for the issuer to redeem those bonds. For bonds with first call date later than end 2012, but without an incentive to redeem such as a step-up, the capital recognition will be reduced by 10% each year starting from 1 Jan 2013. This seems to provide an incentive for issuers to tender for bonds with long-dated first calls, unless there is a regulatory call option available to force early redemption.
However, I do not think that this means that issuers will automatically seek to repurchase / exchange non-qualifying ‘grandfathered’ securities at the earliest opportunity. Irrespective of Basel 3 they are still a source of finance and, therefore, I think issuers will only seek to repurchase / exchange them where it makes commercial sense for them to do so. The key drivers here will be the cost of the securities and the nature of the holders. Issuers seem to be appreciating that dealing with retail held securities is problematic when it comes to exchange offers or coercive tender offers and so I would expect these to tend to be spared from anything other than voluntary cash offers. However, I would not be surprised to see ‘sweep up’ clauses used in tender offers (similar to those in the recent Bradford & Bingley and NRAM tenders) such that if there are sufficient acceptances the remaining bonds get called on the same basis as those accepting. Unless terms are very generous I would not expect high acceptance levels and so the remaining issues should be large enough to provide liquidity.
Eurozone Crisis
As we saw in early 2009 when the market gets very nervous about the solvency or liquidity of banks the market for their subordinated debt can be hit very hard and subject to indiscriminate selling at any price. The current Eurozone crisis has the potential to cause a similar situation and, consequently, the question of whether or not to buy bank subordinated debt right now entirely depends on how the Eurozone crisis evolves. If the situation deteriorates, and one or more Eurozone countries default and/or leave the Eurozone, then the resulting panic could force emergency public sector recapitalisation of a wide range of Eurozone banks. In these circumstances, market prices of bank sub debt would certainly fall further. Furthermore, as we saw in Ireland in 2011 if times get desperate enough, governments will find ways of imposing losses on holders of bank subordinated debt to provide part of the rescue capital for the banks concerned.
In my opinion the UK banks are in a much stronger balance sheet and capital positions than most Eurozone banks. So in that sense their subordinated debt is safer and UK banks could even be seen as a safe haven relative to those in the Eurozone. But ultimately, if the Eurozone crisis becomes bad enough, it will hit the UK banks badly too and they will need additional capital. If that has to come from the government, then there is a significant risk that holders would be coerced into accepting significant losses whatever the legal terms say.
While the Eurozone crisis is ongoing my view is to concentrate on the subordinated debt and preference shares of UK issuers. However, specific distressed or value opportunities may appear in Eurozone banks and where this happens my preference will be to seek out securities issued by UK subsidiaries of these banks with the terms under English law and the jurisdiction of English courts.
Issuer Call Options
In my view the convention of issuers calling securities on the first call date is a thing of the past. Deutsche Bank started the new trend back in 2008 when it did not call one of its subordinated bonds and in Feb 2011 Italian bank Monte dei Paschi di Siena did likewise.
Amongst UK banks and building societies issuers such as Lloyds and RBS have given commitments to the EC not to exercise calls during the 2 year EC coupon suspension period. Then on 23 June 2011 Principality Building Society announced that it would not exercise its call option on the 5.375% notes 2016 (PBS) on 8 July. This was the first call due amongst PIBS and subordinated bonds popular with retail investors and the fact that a non-distressed issuer decided not to call its bond is significant.
Then on 15 September 2011 Barclays elected not to call one of its USD T1 preference shares (US06739F3901). It is a $750M issue and the coupon is 6.625% with no reset on the call date. The explanation given by Barclays investor relations for this non-call was:
"This instrument was not called on 15/09/2011. This is a retail preference share (as are series 3 to 5) and, like certain other issuers in the market, we have elected not to call at first call date, given current uncertainty in the regulatory capital space and attractive economics in current market conditions. The security remains callable on any quarterly Dividend Payment Date and we will continue to monitor the call decision going forward. This should not, however, be taken as a concrete policy going forward. We will analyse each case on its merits, economic, reputational and regulatory."
Most calls of T1 securities of UK banks are subject to FSA approval and it could well be that the FSA are reluctant to approve calls of large issues in the current climate. If other building societies or banks decide not to call their PIBS or bonds, the impact on value could be serious, especially in cases where the coupon is reset against currently low LIBOR rates.
Going forward I think issues with call dates will only be called if the issuer can refinance cheaper elsewhere. With reference rates (such as LIBOR) so low many issues which revert to LIBOR + x% look unlikely to be called in the current climate. I do not think reputation or convention will come into these decisions in future.
The exception could be larger issuers such as Lloyds using call options to tidy up the relatively small rumps of securities which are largely retail held. Obvious examples here are the rumps of issues of Lloyds preference shares with call options which were not tendered for ECN exchange back in 2009.
However, as already mentioned, Basel 3 gives a clear direction for issuers to exercise calls on issues where there is an incentive to do so (such as ‘step-up’ issues) so I would expect such issues to be called at the first call date. This could give rise to some interesting investment opportunities amongst T1 securities trading at a discount to par but with a near term call and high reset rate.
Discretionary Coupon Resumptions
Discretionary coupons on Lloyds and RBS subordinated bonds and preference shares are currently subject to two year suspensions under a commitment given to the EC as a condition of State aid approval. The Lloyds suspension expires on 31 January 2012 and there has been much debate over whether the bank will resume discretionary coupons at the earliest opportunity thereafter.
I have been doing some New Years research on this question which resulted in a long conversation with the Head of Debt Investor Relations at Lloyds. The coupon suspended security with the first payment date after expiry of the suspension is the 7.375% Euro 2012 issue (ISIN XS0107222258). This issue has an interest payment of 7 February 2012 which also happens to be the first call date. He told me that Lloyds has issued a call notice in respect of this security. I made the point that this does not appear to be an economic call (the reset is 3m Euribor + 2.32%). The answer was that it is a small rump and the holders' option to force redemption using an ordinary share issue was a complication they prefer to avoid. I also pointed out that the call appears to breach the redemption restrictions in the terms of various coupon suspended securities. Answer was that they have been working with Trustees of various issues to put measures in place (such as setting aside next 12 months coupons in Escrow) to work around this.
He made the point that switching back on the coupons following the suspension was very complex (and much more difficult than switching them off) and the inter-play of the various terms causes some circular situations. As a result they have had to work with the Trustees of a number if securities to obtain waivers of conditions in return for setting aside of funds to cover coupons.
I made the point that the market could do with some communication as to what was going on - especially due to the issue of pricing of accrued interest. He very much took this point on board and said they would work on it and look to get announcements out before the end of the 31 January EC suspension.
Overall the impression I got was that Lloyds is very much preparing to resume payment of discretionary coupons once the EC suspension period expires.
Another issue which arises out of discretionary coupon resumptions is what will happen about the unpaid deferred interest from the suspension period on cumulative securities? In the case of UT2 securities such as Lloyds 'H' Series (tickers HALA, HALC, HALP and HALB) subordinated bonds the terms require that such accumulated interest be paid before dividends can be paid on any junior share capital. I would, therefore, expect Lloyds to pay the deferred interest on these securities on the first payment date following expiry of the suspension period. However, there are some perpetual T1 securities (such as the Lloyds 13% Series) where the cumulative terms are less strong and do not give as much comfort to holders. In the case of the Lloyd's 13's deferred accumulated interest only becomes due on redemption or winding up. Due to the perpetual nature the securities may never be redeemed and, so, in theory the deferred interest may never become paybable. There is also the issue of the Alternative Coupon Settlement Mechanism (ACSM) in the terms of the 13's which requires that payment of deferred interest is funded by the issue of ordinary shares. This may also deter Lloyds from settling the interest sooner as it adds a layer of hassle which, presumably, would need the FSA's blessing to avoid. However, due to the high coupon and step-up after the 2019 /2029 (depending on issue) first call date the 13's are highly likely to be called. The combination of the high coupon and long-dated first call also make the 13's prime candidates for a tender offer at some point this year and Lloyds may well see some value in holding back the deferred so that it can be offered as a carrot to holders in an offer. 2029 is rather a long time to wait so holders may want to consider pushing Lloyds to pay the deferred interest once interest payments resume. I understand from Lloyds that no decision has yet been made on this.
Summary
Well those are my thoughts for starting 2012. In the short term they will lead me to scour for securities, likely to be T1, issued by UK banks (or UK subsidiaries of foreign banks) trading at a healthy discount to nominal, a reset rate which steps up rather than down and either a first call date in the next few years or an incentive to tender due to the high coupon.
As always I welcome the thoughts of others so please share your views by emailing me at mark@fixedincomeinvestments.org.uk
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